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『ALNG2012-Diss 3』SZ Energy Intelligence advocates necessity for gas linked LNG pricing
Wednesday, Mar. 21, 2012 PRINT EMAIL FAV PDF

US spot nautral gas price fell to the valley point of 10 years in jan 2012, 2.23 dollars/mil btus. Benefit from the advances in hydrofracturing tachnologies and shale gas boom, global LNG will be in oversuplly in the next 8 years. Australia, America, Africa and Middle East countries are expanding their LNG prodution capacities, therefore the lower prices are before eyes. The traditional sellers’ market are being changed into the buyers’ market.

Triditonal LNG sellers had intention to win the asian market back. Qatar’s business should focus on asia areas and promote network marketing, they are seeking the long term export contracts, more than 20 years’ contract validity will be perfect.

However, the different pricing models are being applied in Asia, Europe and US. Northeast Asia LNG buyers, Japan, Korea and China Taiwan for instance couldn’t introduce the pipeline natural gas for their sepcial geographic positions. Their LNG contracts set linked to oil prices and at that time gas and fuel prices should be taken into consideration. It was not the same case with US. US’s contract price set linked to natural gas prices.

Qatar always persisted the pricing model setting linked to oil prices, which is being chanllenged unprecedentedly. A lot of buyers had increasing interesting in import US LNG. Her role change from importer to exporter will urge the disconnection between Asia LNG import price and US Henry Hub gas prcies and bring the possibilities of decreasing prices in natural gas market.

More worrying to Qatar is the chanllenge posed by US, Qatar pricing model’s domination place is being chanllenged by 2020. According to Japan LNG companies’ data, Japan’s LNG import prcie reached 16.66dollars, simultaneously natural gas futures was 3.13 dollars.

Asia LNG diliver prices for present are far beyond spot prices of Europe and America, CEO of SZ Energy Intelligence, Zhou Xiaolai said. She also reminded that the regional price disparity didn’t appear in other commodity exchanges. To set up an universal pricing model is the foundation of commodity exchanges. However, it is not easily to be done. As for Japan, there were few enterprises to commit to sign the 20-year deals with Qatar for their uncertainties about the restart of unclear power plants. On the other hand, geographic positions of Japan and Korea don’t leave enough room to negotiate long term deals for no pipepline gas can be introduced into.

ALNG2012 organized by SZ Energy Intelligence and Shanghai Social Science Academy will take place on May 17-18, 2012, in Shanghai China. From now to May 2012, SZ Energy Intelligence will contribute a series of topics related to LNG hot issues. All speakers involved these topics will be likely to be the speaker on ALNG2012 for deepening industry communications, and please contact with ecfchinadat(at)gmail.com if any interests or ideas.

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